A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
